Methodology

TrueJury nods to jury nullification, the citizen's historic check on the law, and to the null hypothesis: every case we run is an experiment testing what juries actually do against what everyone assumes they do.

One verdict per visitor per case, deduplicated by an anonymous browser token. Counts display as percentages until a case reaches 150 verdicts, then raw counts publish alongside. Human tallies contain human votes only; the AI Jury Forecast on each case is clearly labeled and never counted.

Some cases secretly assign each visitor one of two case files. Nothing in either file is false; they differ only in how much of the record they contain. The split stays sealed until the case is decided, and the verdict gap between the two juries publishes as a finding with sample sizes attached.

Cases marked Forecast concern matters pending before real courts. Our numbers there are the public jury's assessment of the public record and a prediction of the outcome, never a judgment of the real case. Forecast jurors hold a standing verdict they may change as the trial unfolds; every change is recorded, never overwritten. The published flip rate counts jurors who changed their verdict at least once. Because we re-ask the same jurors rather than sampling new people, sentiment movement reflects changed minds, which distinguishes the tracker from polls and prediction markets. On forecast cases, the official forecast locks as of the moment the case is submitted to the real jury, reconstructed from the timestamped record; voting may continue through deliberations, and those later votes are reported separately.

Anyone, anywhere, may serve. That is by design. The questions our cases ask are human questions before they are national ones, and a jury drawn from everywhere tests them the way no courtroom can. We therefore do not claim our verdicts represent any one country. When jurors choose to share where they serve from, comparative verdicts across places will publish as labeled research findings; until then, the tally is exactly what it says: the public, counted one juror at a time.

Every case file is drawn from the public record and lists its sources on the case page. Court records and named outlets, checkable in one click.

This methodology is versioned; changes are logged on this page. Our accuracy record, including our misses, publishes in the press room.